Congressional races by state: PA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY; today, PA, where they close on 2/12

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Pennsylvania has 19 congressional districts

11 are held by Democrats, 8 by Republicans

The 11 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

1         D+36    .06       Brady            No            Safe

2         D+39    .04       Fattah           No            Safe

4         R+3     .65       Altmire          Yes           Vulnerable

7         D+4     .56       Sestak           No            probably OK

8         D+3     .70       Murphy           No            depends on  

                                                          Repub  

10        R+8     .78       Carney           Yes           Vulnerable

11        D+5     .59       Kanjorski        No            Mostly safe

12        D+5     .63       Murtha           Yes           Safe if Murtha        

                                                            runs

13        D+8     .46       Schwartz         No            Safe

14        D+22    .18       Doyle            No            Safe

17        R+7     .64       Holden           Yes           Mostly safe

The 8 Republicans:

PA-03 R+2  .70

The third is a C shaped area in NW PA, with the flat part of the C against the OH border and the top of the C on the NY border.

English, first elected in 1994, has had relatively close races recently; in 2006 he won 54-42 against Steven Porter, despite outspending Porter 6-1.  

Now Porter is running as an independent, and there’s a Democratic primary with 4 candidates, and a Republican challenger.  From a quick look at their websites, I can’t tell who to support: Kyle Foust ; Mike Waltner ; Mike Waltner ; Tom Myers or Kathleen Dahlkemper.  But English is vulnerable.

PA-05 R+10 .75

The 5th is the northern middle of PA, and mostly rural.  

Peterson, first elected in 1996, has mostly won easily, although in 2006 Donald Hilliard got 40% with no money.  Now Petersen is retiring!

Hilliard is running again. If he can get 40% with no money, could this be a pickup opportunity? Hilliard did a little better than Kerry did in 2004…There doesn’t seem to be a Republican running yet (at least per Race Tracker).  Looks interesting

see this diary for much more information.

epublicans (and one Democrat) keep declining: See neither Corman, Conklin running and more GOPers decline to run ]

PA-06 D +2 .67

The 6th is a weirdly shaped district in SE PA, outside of Philadelphia

Gerlach is one of the rare congressmen who didn’t get a rating over 80 from any of the groups in the Almanac of American Politics.  He was first elected in 2002, and has never gotten over 51%, the last two times against Lois Murphy, who is not running again.

There are several potential challengers (see the Wiki) but no one has officially announced yet.  This is a very vulnerable seat.

PA-09 R+15 .80

The 9th is the middle southern part of PA, along the MD border

Shuster, first elected in 2001, has not been seriously challenged since his first election.  In 2006, though, Tony Barr got 40% with only $60,000 (he was outspent 20-1); Shuster, despite his funding, ran well behind Bush’s figures of 2004.

Barr is running again.  It’ll be tough, but who knows what he could do with some money behind him?

PA-15 D+2 .58

The 15th is in the southeastern portion of PA, partly bordering NJ, including towns like Easton and Allentown and Bethlehem.

Dent, first elected in 2004, got only 54% in 2006, despite outspendiing Dertinger by about 15-1.

One opponent is Sam Bennett .  I really like her – I wrote two diaries on her: Israel Salanter, Sam Bennett and the essence of progressivism and Sam Bennett for Congress but she may have local problems .  The other opponent is an anti-abortion activist….I’m not linking to his site!

PA-16 R +11 .66

The 16th is the SE corner of PA, bordering DE and MD, and including Amish areas.

Pitts, first elected in 1996, may retire.  He has won easily without spending much.

Bruce Slater is challenging for the seat.  Frankly, if Pitts doesn’t retire, I think this will be tough.

PA-18 R +2 .62

The 18th is in the SW corner of PA, bordering WV, but it zigs and zags this way and that.

Murphy, first elected in 2002, has won pretty easily against underfinanced opponents.  Murphy outpolled Bush by considerable amounts.  But Murphy may be a crook (well, of course, he’s a Republican! but we may have proof!

At least three Democrats are running: Beth Hafer ; Steve O’Donnell (fix that site, please Steve!) and Daniel Wholey.

PA-19 R +12  .70

The 19th is on the southern edge of PA, in the middle of the state, bordering MD and including Gettysburg and York

Platts, first elected in 2000, has won very easily.  

No confirmed challenger.

Summary: PA probably has more seats in play than any other state.  In fact, few of the seats (on either side) are really safe.  For the Democrats, the four freshmen (Altmire, Sestak, Murphy, and Carney) are all vulnerable; if Murtha retires, his seat is in play.  For the Republicans, only the 16th and 19th look safe.

so 11 Democrats   6 safe

   8 Republicans  2 safe